A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran showed signs of strain on Friday, just one day before both sides are set to begin negotiations in Pakistan, as disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing violence in Lebanon threaten to derail diplomatic progress.
The two-week truce, brokered with the help of regional mediators, was initially seen as a potential turning point in a conflict that has disrupted global energy markets and heightened instability across the Middle East. However, early developments suggest that significant challenges remain.
Tensions have escalated over Iran’s continued restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route that typically carries around 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.
The United States has accused Tehran of failing to honor commitments to allow shipping through the strait, raising concerns about the credibility of the ceasefire agreement.
U.S. President Donald Trump voiced frustration in a social media post late Thursday, saying Iran was doing a “very poor job” of allowing oil shipments to pass.
“That is not the agreement we have!” he wrote, signaling growing dissatisfaction within Washington over Tehran’s actions.
In a separate message, Trump said oil would begin flowing again but did not specify what actions the United States might take if the situation does not improve.
Data from the first 24 hours of the ceasefire illustrates the scale of the disruption. Only one oil products tanker and five dry bulk carriers passed through the Strait of Hormuz during that period.
Under normal conditions, the strait handles approximately 140 vessels per day, making current traffic levels a fraction of typical activity.
The continued restrictions on shipping have contributed to what analysts describe as one of the most severe disruptions to global energy supplies in recent history.
Iran has justified its position by pointing to ongoing Israeli military operations in Lebanon, arguing that these actions undermine the broader ceasefire framework.
The situation in Lebanon has emerged as a major point of contention. Israel conducted strikes early Friday targeting rocket launchers that had reportedly fired toward northern Israel the previous evening.
According to the Israeli military, around 10 launch sites were hit in response to missile activity attributed to Hezbollah, an Iran-backed group operating in the region.
Israeli officials said a missile launched toward the northern city of Haifa triggered air raid sirens but was intercepted.
In response, Hezbollah said it had targeted Israeli military infrastructure, underscoring the continuation of hostilities despite the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran.
A key source of tension lies in differing interpretations of the ceasefire’s scope. The United States and Israel have maintained that the agreement does not extend to Lebanon, where Israel has been conducting operations against Hezbollah.
However, Iran and Pakistan, which played a mediating role, argue that Lebanon was explicitly included in the ceasefire terms.
Iranian officials have emphasized that their regional allies are integral to any broader settlement. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Lebanon and other members of Iran’s regional alliance must be considered part of any agreement.
This divergence has added complexity to the already fragile diplomatic process.
Iran’s leadership has also taken a firm stance. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran would seek accountability for damage caused during the conflict.
“We will certainly not leave unpunished the aggressors who attacked our country,” he said, adding that Iran would demand compensation for losses.
Such statements highlight the challenges facing negotiators as they attempt to bridge deep divisions.
Talks in Pakistan seen as critical
The upcoming negotiations in Pakistan are expected to be pivotal in determining whether the ceasefire can evolve into a more durable agreement.
The talks, scheduled to begin Saturday, will bring together senior representatives from both sides, including Iranian officials and U.S. Vice President JD Vance.
The ceasefire itself was reached just hours before a deadline set by Donald Trump, who had warned of potential attacks on Iranian infrastructure if no agreement was reached.
Iran has outlined a 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations. The plan includes maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, recognition of its right to nuclear enrichment, lifting of sanctions, and an end to hostilities across the region.
These demands are likely to be contentious, particularly those involving nuclear policy and control of strategic waterways.
The proposal also links the situation in Lebanon to the broader conflict, calling for an end to fighting involving Hezbollah.
Parallel efforts in Lebanon
At the same time, diplomatic efforts are underway to address tensions between Israel and Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had instructed officials to begin peace talks with Lebanon as soon as possible, focusing on disarming Hezbollah and establishing more stable relations.
A Lebanese official said Beirut is pushing for a temporary ceasefire to allow broader discussions, describing the effort as a parallel track to the US-Iran negotiations.
The US Iran ceasefire tensions highlight the complexity of achieving lasting peace in a region marked by overlapping conflicts and competing interests.
While the ceasefire has created an opportunity for dialogue, its fragility is evident in ongoing disputes over shipping access and continued violence in Lebanon.
The coming days will be critical as negotiations begin and both sides test whether diplomacy can deliver a more stable outcome.
For now, the ceasefire represents a pause rather than a resolution, with the risk of renewed escalation still present.
