Farmers across the world are racing to secure fertilizer supplies as the global fertilizer supply shock from Iran war begins to ripple through agricultural markets.
The conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has triggered concerns about disruptions to one of the world’s most critical supply chains. Fertilizer prices are rising quickly, shipping routes are under threat, and producers are already beginning to scale back operations.
For farmers preparing for planting season in the northern hemisphere — and for those getting ready for winter crops in the southern hemisphere — the sudden turmoil could not have come at a worse time.
Chet Edinger, a farmer near Mitchell in South Dakota, had already purchased most of the fertilizer needed for his corn and soybean fields last year. But as news broke that war had erupted in the Middle East, he rushed to secure additional supplies before prices rose further.
By Monday morning he had arranged several more truckloads of urea fertilizer to support the tens of thousands of acres he cultivates.
“We grabbed what we needed,” Edinger said in a phone interview. “But it cost 22% more than what I paid late last year. It’s the highest price I’ve ever had to pay.”
His experience reflects a growing sense of urgency across global agriculture as the global fertilizer supply shock from Iran war intensifies.
A key concern for markets is the strategic vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor connecting the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea.
Roughly one-third of the world’s fertilizer supply moves through that route, either as finished products or as raw materials such as ammonia. Iranian officials have warned they could close the waterway in retaliation for attacks by the United States and Israel.
Even the threat of disruption has been enough to rattle commodity markets.
Another major factor driving the global fertilizer supply shock from Iran war is the rapid rise in natural gas prices. Gas is the primary input used to produce nitrogen fertilizers such as urea and ammonia, making energy markets closely linked to agricultural production.
As the conflict spreads across the region, energy prices have surged, pushing up production costs for fertilizer manufacturers worldwide.
Analysts say the timing could have significant consequences for global food markets.
Farmers across North America and Europe are preparing to fertilize crops such as corn, wheat and soybeans as the spring growing season approaches. At the same time, farmers in countries in the southern hemisphere are planning the next cycle of winter planting.
That means fertilizer demand is already high — and any supply disruption risks cascading through agricultural systems.
Alexis Maxwell, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said the situation creates a major vulnerability for the global food system.
“I don’t want to say it’s catastrophic,” Maxwell said, “but the timing could not be worse. Escalating attacks in the Middle East are creating a global chokepoint for farmers.”
The potential impact extends far beyond the agricultural sector itself. If fertilizer prices remain elevated, farmers may reduce usage, which can lower crop yields.
Lower yields translate into smaller harvests, ultimately pushing food prices higher for consumers.
Philip Sunderland, a fertilizer trader at Aquifert, said the effects may not appear immediately but could emerge months later.
“Without fertilizer your yields go down,” he said. “If yields go down, then there’s less grain, less rice and less food on the market.”
The time lag between planting and harvest means the full impact might only become visible later in the year.
“There might be a delay of six to nine months between crops coming out of the ground and food reaching your table,” Sunderland added. “But if this continues, inflation in food prices could surge around the end of the year.”
Market reactions have already been swift.
In the United States, the price of urea — a widely used nitrogen fertilizer — jumped $70 in a single week to reach $550 per short ton, according to data from Bloomberg Green Markets.
Some suppliers have even withdrawn offers from the market entirely as they attempt to assess the evolving geopolitical situation.
In international markets the increases have been even sharper.
Granular urea prices in Egypt rose nearly 27% to $620 per metric ton, while price estimates climbed rapidly in Russia, one of the world’s largest fertilizer exporters.
The uncertainty has effectively frozen parts of the global fertilizer trade.
Peter Harrisson, an analyst with the research firm CRU Group, said many buyers and sellers are waiting for clarity before committing to new contracts.
“Much of the fertilizer market is pausing to assess how the conflict might affect availability,” he said.
In some regions, the war is already disrupting production.
In India, several fertilizer manufacturers have begun reducing urea output after Qatar suspended shipments of liquefied natural gas following an attack on energy infrastructure.
Gas is a key feedstock for fertilizer production, and any interruption quickly affects manufacturing capacity.
Meanwhile in Pakistan, fertilizer producer Agritech Limited announced that its gas supply had been suspended, forcing the company to scale back operations.
European fertilizer producers face a different challenge.
The industry across the European Union has already struggled with high energy costs in recent years, leading to production cutbacks and increasing reliance on imports.
The latest surge in natural gas prices linked to the Iran conflict threatens to intensify those pressures.
In Poland, state-controlled fertilizer producer Grupa Azoty temporarily halted orders for its products, citing rising gas costs that had dramatically increased production expenses.
For farmers around the world, the uncertainty is creating widespread anxiety.
In eastern Poland, organic farmer Rafal Derlukiewicz said he has seen a sudden surge in demand for alternative fertilizers such as animal manure.
A neighbor recently called to ask whether he had extra horse or sheep manure available — materials that organic farmers often use instead of synthetic fertilizer.
“There is some panic here,” Derlukiewicz said. “People simply cannot buy fertilizers.”
Similar concerns are emerging on the other side of the globe.
In the state of Queensland in northeastern Australia, wheat and barley farmer Richard Golden received a call from his supplier urging him to collect previously ordered nitrogen fertilizer immediately.
If he did not take delivery quickly, the supplier warned, the shipment could be sold to another farmer.
Australia imports roughly two-thirds of its urea fertilizer from the Middle East, making it particularly vulnerable to disruptions in the region.
Golden said the situation forced him to act quickly.
“We had to decide whether it was important enough to take delivery right away,” he said. “Otherwise we risked losing it.”
For some farmers, the conflict is already forcing difficult decisions about what crops to plant.
In Iowa, corn and soybean farmer Brad Feckers said he had planned to plant about two-thirds of his land with corn.
But corn requires large amounts of nitrogen fertilizer, making it more expensive to grow when fertilizer prices surge.
“If nitrogen doesn’t come down, we might switch more acres to soybeans,” he said.
Such changes could alter crop supply patterns in global markets.
Smaller farmers, particularly in developing countries, may face even greater challenges. Many lack the financial resources to stockpile fertilizer or adjust their crop mix in response to price shocks.
This is especially concerning in regions where agricultural production depends heavily on smallholder farmers.
Palm oil production is one example.
About 40% of global palm oil output comes from small-scale farmers, many of them located in Southeast Asia. The oil palm trees that dominate the region’s plantations require substantial nutrients, and insufficient fertilization can reduce yields within a matter of months.
According to Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir, director-general of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, soaring fertilizer prices could force some farmers to cut back on applications.
Malaysia is the world’s second-largest palm oil producer, meaning any decline in yields could affect global vegetable oil supplies.
For the moment, global grain inventories remain relatively comfortable.
Those reserves may limit immediate shocks to supermarket shelves, especially for staple foods such as bread and meat.
However, if the conflict persists and fertilizer shortages continue, the longer-term impact could become more severe.
Food security experts warn that price spikes are most dangerous for poorer countries, where consumers already spend a large share of their income on food.
Tim Benton, a professor at University of Leeds who studies global food systems, said rising input costs can quickly push farmers in developing countries out of the market.
“When prices rise, many farmers simply cannot afford the inputs they need,” he said.
That dynamic can reduce production and drive food inflation — sometimes triggering humanitarian crises.
“We already face enough challenges in the global food system,” Benton said. “Escalating conflicts that disrupt fertilizer supply risk making those problems even worse.”
As the global fertilizer supply shock from Iran war continues to unfold, farmers, governments and commodity traders will be watching closely.
What happens in the coming months — from shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz to energy markets and fertilizer production — could determine not only the cost of farming, but also the price of food around the world.
