Ecologists have warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East risks triggering a major environmental crisis, as satellite imagery shows a significant increase in oil slicks across the Persian Gulf since the escalation of hostilities in late February.
“If oil spills spread into coastal systems, they can have a detrimental impact on bird species, fisheries resources, and the communities that depend on them,” said Liz Atwood, senior scientist at the Plymouth Marine Laboratory, a UK-based research institute.
Experts say the spills may be linked to attacks on oil tankers or energy infrastructure, or could stem from technical failures during fuel loading and unloading operations. The precise causes remain difficult to confirm due to limited access to affected areas amid ongoing conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, has been effectively disrupted for much of the past three months, leaving hundreds of vessels stranded and unable to reach open waters. Several ships have also been struck by projectiles and debris from intercepted drones and missiles since the conflict began, while onshore energy facilities across the region have come under repeated attack, increasing the risk of oil leakage.
“When there are attacks on oil tankers or onshore infrastructure such as refineries, the likelihood of oil spills increases significantly,” said Juan Peña, chief executive of Orbital, a Spain-based company specializing in satellite detection of oil spills using Earth observation data, including the European Union’s Copernicus programme.
While physical verification of incidents remains difficult due to the conflict environment, non-governmental organizations and private firms have increasingly relied on satellite monitoring to track oil pollution events in the region.
So far, detected spills have ranged from several dozen barrels to larger incidents that would typically trigger cleanup operations in other parts of the world. The largest recorded spills identified by Orbital originated from Iran’s Kharg Island, a key oil export facility, including one on 6 May estimated at between 300 and 3,000 barrels, and another on 16 May ranging between 200 and 2,000 barrels.
Peña noted that the wide estimate range reflects the limitations of satellite-only assessments, which cannot precisely quantify the volume of oil released into the sea.
Another spill originated from Lavan Island and later spread toward Shidvar, an uninhabited Iranian island designated as a protected nature reserve with coral reefs and bird habitats.
Although the cause of that spill—first reported by The New York Times—has not been confirmed, Orbital’s satellite analysis suggests it occurred around 9–10 April, shortly after reported attacks on the Lavan refinery.
A third, smaller incident was detected on 4 May in the Strait of Hormuz. Following media reports of an attack on the ADNOC tanker Barakah, a spill covering about 33.2 square kilometres was identified in the same area, with an estimated release of 25 to 230 barrels of oil.
While not comparable to major historical disasters, Peña said the incident still represented a substantial environmental risk. “It is a significant amount of oil,” he said. “It is in Iranian waters, and we do not know whether any cleanup operations are underway—there is no evidence that they have taken place.”
Historical data underscores the scale of potential risk in the region. During the 1991 Gulf War, an estimated 11 million barrels of oil were released into the sea, according to a 2018 study published in Environment and Natural Resources Research.
The resulting oil slick spread to the coastlines of Kuwait and northern Saudi Arabia, contaminating land and groundwater. The study estimated that up to 10,000 tonnes of fish became unsafe for consumption and around 30,000 birds died as a result of the spill.
The Persian Gulf also contains more than 260 shipwrecks from previous conflicts, according to a 2004 United Nations Development Programme report. Many of these wrecks still contain residual oil products, rocket fuel, toxic chemicals, and unexploded ordnance, which continue to leak pollutants into the marine environment.
While media attention often focuses on large-scale spills, scientists warn that the cumulative impact of smaller incidents may pose an even greater long-term threat to ecosystems.
“It is difficult to advocate for oil spill response during wartime,” Atwood said. “You realise you are a small voice—ecology is not the priority in those discussions.”
However, she noted that the Persian Gulf remains a critical area for marine research, as its coral reefs have adapted to extreme sea temperatures, making them a key reference point for understanding global warming impacts.
“This is where parts of the planet are heading,” she said. “This is a region we need to protect because it may hold important clues for how we deal with extreme heat and marine stress in the coming century.”
