Matteo Salvini, once the dominant figure of Italy’s populist right, is confronting the deepest political crisis of his leadership as support for his League party continues to erode, raising concerns about the stability of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s governing coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary election.
Salvini, who earned the nickname “the captain” during the League’s meteoric rise, transformed the party from a regional movement representing Italy’s wealthy north into a nationalist force that became one of Europe’s most influential far-right parties. At its peak, the League captured 34% of the vote in the 2019 European Parliament election, making Salvini one of the continent’s most recognizable political figures.
Today, opinion polls place the League at just 6%, marking one of the steepest declines experienced by a major Italian political party in recent years.
The party’s downturn has accelerated since February following the launch of Futuro Nazionale, a splinter movement founded by a former Salvini ally that has attracted conservative voters dissatisfied with the League’s direction while positioning itself further to the right.
The weakening of Salvini’s political standing is reshaping Italy’s electoral landscape at a crucial moment.
According to polling data compiled by YouTrend, Meloni’s governing coalition—made up of Brothers of Italy, Forza Italia and the League—is now trailing Italy’s center-left bloc, despite Meloni’s own party largely maintaining its electoral support. Analysts say the League’s collapse has become the coalition’s principal vulnerability.
Political analyst Lorenzo Pregliasco, head of YouTrend, said Salvini’s difficulties reflect the natural decline experienced by long-serving political leaders, particularly those whose anti-establishment credentials have been weakened by repeated participation in government.
“There are no leaders for all seasons,” Pregliasco said.
Salvini has served continuously in national governments since 2018, including his current role as transport minister under Meloni.
Within the League itself, tensions have become increasingly visible.
A party official familiar with internal discussions said routine strategy meetings have become increasingly contentious, with members openly criticizing Salvini’s leadership and disagreeing over the party’s future direction.
The divisions largely fall into two camps.
One faction remains loyal to Salvini and supports maintaining his nationalist platform, while another argues the League should return to its traditional roots by focusing on regional autonomy and local economic issues in northern Italy, where the party originally built its political base.
Lorenzo De Sio, a political scientist at Luiss University, said Salvini’s weakening authority has encouraged potential rivals, although none has formally launched a leadership challenge.
“Now that Salvini is under pressure, his internal rivals have gained some ground, but none has openly stepped forward,” De Sio said.
Italian media have increasingly speculated that Salvini could resign before the next election if the party’s fortunes fail to improve.
Among the names frequently mentioned as possible successors are Luca Zaia, the former governor of the Veneto region, and Massimiliano Fedriga, president of the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region.
Fedriga has argued that the League should prioritize constitutional reforms granting greater autonomy to Italy’s northern regions rather than relying on campaign slogans.
“Continuing to win small pockets of support with appealing but unrealistic promises ultimately leads to disappointment,” he said.
League parliamentary leader Riccardo Molinari defended the party’s performance in government but acknowledged that Meloni’s popularity has overshadowed Salvini’s political profile.
“The League has done a good job, but it is not always recognised, as it is overshadowed by the dominance of the prime minister,” Molinari said.
Salvini recently topped an internal vote among League supporters to become the party’s candidate for mayor of Milan, a contest scheduled for next year that some observers view as a possible pathway away from national leadership should his standing continue to deteriorate.
His tenure as transport minister has also come under growing scrutiny.
Persistent disruptions to Italy’s rail network have damaged his public image, while one of his signature infrastructure proposals—a long-planned bridge linking Sicily to the Italian mainland across the Strait of Messina—has made little tangible progress despite repeated political promises.
Supporters have floated the idea of returning Salvini to the Interior Ministry, where he built much of his popularity between 2018 and 2019 through hardline immigration policies.
The proposal, however, has received only lukewarm support within Meloni’s coalition.
Political priorities have shifted significantly since Salvini’s previous term as interior minister.
Public opinion surveys indicate Italians are now more concerned about inflation, rising fuel costs and broader economic pressures following the conflict involving Iran than immigration, once the defining issue of Salvini’s political career.
Senior League official Stefano Candiani acknowledged that simply emphasizing regional autonomy would not be enough to restore the party’s electoral strength.
“That was fine when the country was in good shape, not with the fuel prices rising,” he said.
Signs of the party’s uncertainty became evident this week when leaders canceled a major rally scheduled for early July near Treviso, saying more time was needed to develop a strategy for rebuilding support.
Treviso Mayor Mario Conte, himself a League member, said the cancellation reflected a broader need for the party to redefine its mission before voters return to the polls.
“Meetings are useful when there are clear ideas and shared goals, otherwise they are a waste of time, or worse,” Conte said. “The League has lost its way and must quickly rediscover it.”
For Salvini, the months ahead may determine not only his political future but also whether Italy’s right-wing coalition can retain power after the next general election. With Meloni remaining personally popular but increasingly dependent on weaker coalition partners, the League’s ability—or inability—to reverse its decline could prove decisive in shaping the country’s political direction.
