KINSHASA, Democratic Republic of Congo — The United Nations warned Tuesday that the ongoing Ebola outbreak in Central Africa could inflict economic losses of as much as $3.6 billion and eliminate hundreds of thousands of jobs if the virus spreads beyond its current hotspots, raising concerns that the health emergency could evolve into a broader development crisis.
The warning comes as health authorities continue to battle an outbreak of the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the government says 1,307 infections and 377 deaths have been recorded since the outbreak was declared on May 15.
Unlike some previous Ebola outbreaks, the Bundibugyo strain currently has no fully tested vaccine or approved treatment, increasing concerns among public health officials about containing the disease.
Although the vast majority of cases remain concentrated in Congo, Uganda has also reported a limited number of infections, while health experts have warned that neighboring countries, including South Sudan, remain at risk if transmission is not brought under control.
Damien Mama, the United Nations Development Programme’s resident representative in Congo, said rapid international action would be essential to prevent the outbreak from expanding into a wider humanitarian and economic emergency.
“If we have the resources and we step up, we can contain this outbreak and prevent further losses,” Mama said. “If we do not, this health emergency risks becoming a much deeper and prolonged development crisis across the region and potentially the continent.”
In a new assessment, the UNDP outlined three potential economic scenarios based on how successfully the outbreak is contained.
Under its most optimistic projection, where infections remain largely confined to Congo and Uganda, Congo’s economy alone would suffer losses estimated at approximately $1 billion.
The report’s worst-case scenario assumes the virus spreads into additional countries, including Rwanda and Angola, while Africa simultaneously faces higher fuel prices linked to instability surrounding Iran. Under those conditions, the continent’s economic output could decline by as much as $3.6 billion, accompanied by an estimated 328,000 job losses.
The U.N. said the projections underscore the importance of investing in disease surveillance, treatment capacity and cross-border cooperation before the outbreak expands further.
Officials warned that beyond its direct health consequences, a prolonged Ebola epidemic could disrupt trade, reduce investment, weaken labor markets and place additional pressure on already fragile economies across Central and East Africa.
