The economic shock waves from the conflict involving Iran are extending far beyond the Middle East, with the United Nations warning that rising oil prices are rapidly translating into higher food costs and placing millions of additional people at risk of hunger. Humanitarian officials say the combination of expensive energy, disrupted trade routes and shrinking international aid budgets is creating one of the most challenging environments for global food security in recent years.
The World Food Program said its latest assessment indicates that an additional 6.1 million people in some of the world’s most vulnerable countries are expected to struggle to meet their minimum food needs because of the sustained increase in fuel and commodity prices. Somalia, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka are projected to bear the heaviest burden, with poor households facing a sharp decline in purchasing power as the prices of essential goods continue to climb.
The warning illustrates how a regional military confrontation can trigger consequences that reach communities thousands of miles away. While fighting has been concentrated in and around the Persian Gulf, its impact has spread through global energy markets, shipping networks and agricultural supply chains that underpin food production across much of the developing world.
According to the U.N. agency, approximately 2.5 million additional people in Somalia could fall deeper into food insecurity if current market conditions persist. Afghanistan could see another 2.3 million people unable to secure sufficient food, while an estimated 1.3 million more people in Sri Lanka may also struggle to afford basic necessities.
Those figures add to an already severe humanitarian picture. Earlier this year, the World Food Program projected that as many as 45 million additional people worldwide could face acute food insecurity by the end of June, pushing the global total to roughly 318 million people experiencing serious difficulty in accessing adequate food.
Carl Skau, the acting executive director of the World Food Program, said the agency continues to stand by that assessment despite hopes that the military confrontation in the Middle East might ease.
He said the close relationship between energy prices and food costs remains a defining factor in many developing economies. Transportation, irrigation, fertilizer production and food processing all become more expensive when fuel prices rise, leaving consumers with little protection against inflation.
The situation is especially difficult in poorer countries, where families already devote most of their income to buying food. Even modest increases in staple prices can force households to reduce meal sizes, skip meals altogether or abandon more nutritious foods in favor of cheaper alternatives.
The current crisis began after military tensions involving Iran triggered sharp disruptions in global oil markets. Before the conflict escalated, crude oil traded at roughly $73 per barrel. Since then, prices have climbed above $100 as concerns over supply disruptions intensified.
One of the principal drivers has been the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important maritime corridors. Roughly one-fifth of globally traded oil normally passes through the narrow waterway, making any interruption a major concern for energy markets.
As transportation costs increased, the effects spread rapidly throughout the agricultural economy. Fertilizer became more expensive to manufacture and distribute, raising production costs for farmers already dealing with volatile weather and fragile supply chains. Shipping companies also faced higher operating expenses, increasing the cost of moving food between producing regions and importing countries.
The World Food Program said these pressures are expected to continue affecting vulnerable populations even if military operations in the Middle East begin to subside.
Jean-Martin Bauer, director of the agency’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service, said developments over the past three months have confirmed fears that rising energy costs would eventually translate into worsening hunger.
According to Bauer, earlier forecasts warning of deteriorating food security have now become reality. He pointed to the disruption of maritime trade and the resulting increases in the prices of staple commodities such as rice and wheat as key factors driving the crisis.
He said the humanitarian community must respond quickly before rising prices force millions more families into emergency conditions.
Somalia remains among the countries facing the gravest outlook. If current projections prove accurate, roughly one-third of the country’s population could experience severe food insecurity during 2026, largely because many households may no longer be able to purchase essential goods.
Afghanistan also faces mounting pressure. The latest estimates suggest the number of people experiencing food insecurity there could rise to approximately 13.8 million, reflecting both persistent economic hardship and higher food prices.
Sri Lanka, still recovering from previous economic turmoil, is likewise expected to see more than one million additional people at risk of failing to meet their basic nutritional needs if inflation continues.
The World Food Program emphasized that the crisis extends well beyond those three countries.
Skau identified several other regions where humanitarian conditions remain deeply concerning, including Sudan, Gaza, southern Lebanon, Yemen and Haiti. Each is confronting a different combination of armed conflict, political instability, economic disruption or natural disasters, but all share increasing vulnerability to higher global food prices.
Compounding the challenge is a growing shortage of humanitarian funding.
The World Food Program said financial contributions from donor governments have declined significantly, forcing the agency to reduce food assistance even as the number of people requiring help continues to rise.
Officials warned that if the conflict in the Middle East continues for another six months, more than nine million people could lose access to food assistance because humanitarian organizations would be unable to absorb higher operating costs while also purchasing increasingly expensive food supplies.
Rania Dagash-Kamara, assistant executive director of the World Food Program, described the funding shortfall as unprecedented.
She said humanitarian agencies are increasingly forced to make painful decisions about which communities can continue receiving assistance and which must wait despite facing equally urgent needs.
According to Dagash-Kamara, reductions in funding from several traditional donor countries, particularly in Europe, have created one of the largest financial gaps the agency has confronted in recent years.
Humanitarian officials are urging governments and international institutions to increase contributions before the situation deteriorates further.
Without additional funding, aid organizations warn that they may have little choice but to scale back emergency operations at precisely the moment when rising food prices are expanding humanitarian needs.
Economists note that food crises driven by energy shocks can persist even after oil markets stabilize. Farmers often continue paying elevated costs for fertilizer, transportation and agricultural inputs long after crude prices begin falling, delaying any meaningful decline in food prices.
That lag can prolong hardship for low-income households, especially in countries heavily dependent on imported grain or fuel.
For the United Nations, the latest assessment underscores the interconnected nature of modern global crises. A military confrontation affecting oil exports can quickly evolve into a humanitarian emergency in countries with no direct involvement in the conflict itself.
As governments monitor developments in the Middle East, aid agencies argue that preventing a deeper global hunger crisis will require more than diplomatic efforts to reduce regional tensions. It will also depend on sustained humanitarian financing, stable international trade and coordinated action to ensure that vulnerable populations are not priced out of access to the food they need to survive.
