The US-led Ukraine peace talks are still expected to move forward this week, according to officials in both Moscow and Kyiv, even as the administration of Donald Trump remains deeply engaged in a widening military campaign against Iran that has destabilized airspace across parts of the Middle East.
Diplomatic preparations for the next round of negotiations have been complicated by growing security risks in the Gulf region. With airspace in the United Arab Emirates temporarily closed due to the threat of missile and drone attacks, officials now acknowledge that Abu Dhabi is unlikely to host the talks as originally planned.
A person familiar with discussions in Moscow said alternative venues are being considered, with Istanbul emerging as one of the leading options. The source, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks, said the goal is to avoid delays that could derail momentum built during earlier negotiations.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy confirmed on Monday that meetings tentatively scheduled for early March have not been canceled. Speaking to reporters, Zelenskiy said that while Abu Dhabi may no longer be feasible, other neutral locations remain under discussion, including Turkey and Switzerland.
If held, the upcoming session would mark the fourth round of US-led Ukraine peace talks this year. Previous meetings included two rounds in Abu Dhabi and one in Geneva, reflecting Washington’s intensified push to broker an agreement aimed at ending Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Despite progress on procedural and humanitarian issues, a major obstacle remains unresolved. Russia continues to press Ukraine to cede territory in the eastern Donetsk region, an area Moscow has claimed but failed to fully capture despite nearly a decade of fighting that began in 2014.
According to people familiar with the negotiations, Russian officials have privately described the next meeting as potentially decisive. Kremlin envoys told US counterparts after the Geneva talks that further discussions would be pointless unless Kyiv shows flexibility on territorial concessions. They argued that nearly all other elements of a draft framework had already been settled.
Zelenskiy has warned that Ukraine is prepared to explore new diplomatic paths if Moscow withdraws from the process. In an audio message to reporters, he said Kyiv would not allow talks to become a tool for prolonging the war without meaningful progress.
“We’ll be looking for new formats to finish this war,” Zelenskiy said, signaling frustration with what Ukrainian officials describe as Russia’s rigid negotiating stance.
At the same time, Ukrainian leaders remain cautious about alienating Washington, whose military and financial assistance has been central to Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian advances. The US-led Ukraine peace talks, they argue, remain the most viable channel for testing Moscow’s willingness to compromise.
The Kremlin has publicly reaffirmed its support for US mediation, even as it emphasizes strategic self-reliance. Dmitry Peskov, speaking to reporters on Monday, said Moscow continues to value Washington’s role in facilitating dialogue.
“We continue to highly value the mediation efforts of the United States,” Peskov said, according to Russia’s Interfax news service. “But we trust ourselves first and foremost.”
His remarks reflect a broader Russian effort to project confidence while keeping diplomatic options open. Analysts say Moscow is keen to avoid being seen as the party that collapsed negotiations, particularly as international scrutiny intensifies.
The broader geopolitical context is adding new uncertainty to the US-led Ukraine peace talks. The Trump administration’s ongoing military campaign against Iran has raised concerns in European capitals about Washington’s capacity to sustain multiple foreign policy priorities simultaneously.
European officials worry that the scale of US and Israeli strikes on Iran could strain American weapons stockpiles. Such pressure, they fear, may limit Washington’s ability to continue supplying arms to Ukraine at current levels.
People familiar with internal discussions say these concerns have prompted renewed urgency within the European Union to strengthen its own air-defense capabilities and reduce reliance on US military support. At the same time, EU leaders remain focused on keeping Washington fully engaged in the peace process.
Strategic calculations in Washington
For the Trump administration, the challenge lies in balancing military escalation in the Middle East with diplomatic leadership in Europe. Officials argue that the US-led Ukraine peace talks demonstrate Washington’s ability to manage complex global crises simultaneously.
Privately, however, some US allies question whether sustained focus on Iran could dilute American leverage in Ukraine negotiations. They note that Russia may calculate that Washington’s attention is divided, potentially weakening US pressure on Moscow to compromise.
US officials have pushed back against that assessment, insisting that diplomatic teams working on Ukraine remain fully operational and empowered. They argue that resolving the conflict in Ukraine remains a strategic priority, given its implications for European security and NATO credibility.
As uncertainty around US resources grows, European governments are increasingly positioning themselves as active stakeholders rather than passive observers. Several EU states are exploring expanded defense cooperation and accelerated procurement of missile-defense systems.
Officials say this shift is not intended to sideline Washington but to reinforce the credibility of the US-led Ukraine peace talks by demonstrating that Europe is prepared to shoulder greater responsibility for its own security.
At the same time, European diplomats are urging both Kyiv and Moscow to approach the next round of negotiations with flexibility. They warn that a breakdown in talks could entrench the conflict further, making future diplomatic solutions even harder to achieve.
With venues still under discussion and geopolitical pressures mounting, expectations for the next round of US-led Ukraine peace talks are cautiously high. Both sides appear to recognize that the window for meaningful progress may be narrowing.
For Ukraine, the talks represent an opportunity to secure a negotiated end to a war that has devastated its economy and displaced millions. For Russia, they offer a chance to consolidate gains without prolonged military costs.
Whether diplomacy can overcome entrenched positions remains uncertain. What is clear is that, despite the distractions of a volatile Middle East, the fate of Ukraine continues to occupy a central place on the global diplomatic agenda.
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