Colombia is entering one of its most volatile electoral periods in decades, as a wave of political violence, kidnappings, and armed group activity raises serious concerns over security, democratic participation, and institutional stability. The escalation comes amid ongoing fragility in the country’s peace process and increasing territorial influence of armed organizations in several regions.
The surge in violence has included attacks on candidates, threats against lawmakers, and renewed clashes involving dissident armed factions that were not fully integrated into the 2016 peace agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Authorities and observers warn that the combination of criminal networks, armed group fragmentation, and weak state control in rural areas is deepening risks for both candidates and voters.
One of the most alarming incidents involved a 15-year-old suspect who was detained after shooting Colombian senator and presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay with a Glock 9mm handgun during a campaign-related event in June 2025. Uribe was critically injured in the attack and later died in August 2025 after spending two months in a critical condition. His death marked one of the most serious acts of political violence against a presidential contender in Colombia in more than 30 years.
Investigations suggest the attacker was not acting alone and was allegedly directed by an individual linked to a dissident FARC faction known as Segunda Marquetalia, a group frequently associated with the recruitment of minors for criminal operations. The assassination intensified fears that armed groups are increasingly targeting political figures during election periods.
In another case, the convoy of Senator Alexander López, a member of the governing party, came under gunfire in southwestern Colombia earlier this year. President Gustavo Petro condemned the incident, stating that armed criminal organizations involved in drug trafficking were behind an attempted abduction of the senator.
In February, Senator and vice-presidential candidate Aída Quilcué was briefly kidnapped by armed men while traveling through the conflict-affected Cauca region. Quilcué, a long-standing Indigenous rights advocate, said the incident represented the most dangerous moment of her political career despite years of facing threats and violence in public life.
Armed men wearing camouflage reportedly forced Quilcué and her security detail to the ground at gunpoint before releasing them following a security response operation. Despite the ordeal, she later continued her political activities and was announced as a vice-presidential candidate alongside Iván Cepeda.
Security analysts and civil society groups warn that electoral risks in Colombia extend beyond isolated incidents, pointing instead to a broader pattern of territorial control by armed groups and criminal networks. Research linked to Stanford University’s Democracy Action Lab highlights concerns that coercion and intimidation could undermine voter participation, particularly in rural and marginalized communities.
The findings indicate that armed groups may influence electoral behavior through threats, restricted movement, and informal governance structures in areas where state presence remains limited. These dynamics are especially pronounced in regions along Colombia’s Pacific and Caribbean coasts, border departments, and areas affected by displacement and long-term conflict.
Despite rising insecurity, electoral authorities have expanded technological safeguards for the upcoming vote. Around half of Colombia’s 125,000 polling stations are expected to use biometric identification systems, including facial recognition and fingerprint verification. Vote tally sheets known as E-14 forms will also be digitized and transmitted electronically to improve transparency and reduce fraud risks.
However, the Ministry of Defense has acknowledged that it cannot guarantee full security for voters across all regions due to the presence of armed groups in hundreds of municipalities. Officials estimate that armed organizations operate in roughly 300 of Colombia’s 1,103 municipalities, including guerrilla factions such as the ELN, FARC dissidents, and criminal groups like the Gulf Clan, alongside numerous paramilitary networks.
These armed actors are often tied to illegal economies, particularly cocaine production and illicit mining, which continue to fuel territorial disputes and violence. In early 2025, clashes between the ELN and a FARC dissident group known as Frente 33 resulted in more than 80 deaths and displaced around 60,000 people, marking one of the largest forced displacement events in recent years.
Although the government under President Gustavo Petro has pursued a “total peace” strategy involving negotiations with multiple armed groups, progress has been uneven. Several groups have either rejected ceasefire arrangements or failed to comply with agreed terms, while others have expanded their territorial influence during periods of reduced military pressure.
Petro has attempted to secure agreements offering legal benefits and reintegration pathways in exchange for disarmament and demobilization. However, the lack of robust enforcement mechanisms and monitoring frameworks has weakened the effectiveness of these initiatives, with some armed groups continuing operations despite ongoing talks.
The ELN, now the largest active guerrilla organization in the country, has repeatedly denied formal ceasefire commitments, while broader negotiations with other factions have stalled or collapsed. In some regions, violence has intensified as groups compete for control of strategic corridors linked to drug trafficking and illegal resource extraction.
The deterioration in security conditions has significantly shaped the political landscape. Many candidates have adjusted campaign strategies, reducing travel to high-risk areas and relying more heavily on controlled or remote engagements. Public concern over safety, corruption, and organized crime has become central to electoral debate.
Polling data indicates that voters continue to rank violence and criminal activity among their top concerns ahead of the election, reflecting widespread anxiety over the state’s ability to maintain order. The persistence of armed influence in electoral territories has further complicated efforts to ensure free and fair participation.
Colombia’s current political environment is also shaped by the incomplete implementation of the 2016 peace agreement. While the accord successfully led to the demobilization of FARC’s main structure and a temporary reduction in nationwide violence, dissident groups quickly emerged, and other armed actors expanded into vacated territories.
Successive governments have struggled to fully implement rural development programs, security guarantees, and reintegration policies outlined in the agreement. As a result, many regions remain contested, with limited state presence and ongoing armed activity.
President Petro’s “total peace” initiative was launched as an attempt to address these structural issues through broader negotiations with all armed groups. The plan includes ceasefires, legal incentives, and economic reintegration pathways. However, the absence of strong verification systems has undermined its effectiveness, and several groups have continued hostilities despite participation in dialogue processes.
In parallel, Colombia’s political polarization has deepened as candidates present contrasting strategies for addressing violence. Left-wing senator Iván Cepeda, a key figure in peace negotiations and transitional justice efforts, has supported continued dialogue-based approaches to conflict resolution.
Cepeda has long been involved in investigations and political debates surrounding paramilitary influence and has played a role in both FARC and ELN peace talks. His campaign is closely associated with the continuation of Petro’s peace agenda.
On the opposite end of the political spectrum, Abelardo De La Espriella, a lawyer and businessman, has advocated a hardline security strategy emphasizing stronger military action against armed groups. He has built a public profile through high-profile legal cases and business ventures spanning multiple sectors.
Conservative senator Paloma Valencia, a member of the political movement founded by former president Álvaro Uribe, represents continuity within Colombia’s traditional right-wing establishment. Coming from a prominent political family, she has served multiple terms in Congress and maintains a strong presence in national political debates.
As the election approaches, Colombia faces a convergence of political uncertainty, armed violence, and institutional fragility. With candidates operating under heightened security risks and voters confronting persistent threats in several regions, the electoral process is unfolding under conditions that continue to challenge the country’s democratic resilience.
The coming weeks are expected to be decisive not only for the outcome of the vote, but also for the broader trajectory of Colombia’s peace process and its ability to stabilize governance in areas long affected by conflict.
