South Africa is preparing to delay the retirement of a significant portion of its coal-fired electricity generation fleet as replacement gas projects remain stalled, highlighting the country’s growing struggle to balance energy security, economic pressures, and climate commitments.
The government had originally planned to shut down roughly 8 gigawatts of coal-fired generating capacity by 2030 under its Integrated Resource Plan 2025. However, the alternative energy infrastructure intended to replace those plants, including about 6 gigawatts of gas-powered generation, has fallen behind schedule due to legal disputes, procurement delays, and rising costs.
As a result, officials and executives at state-owned utility Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. are increasingly signaling that many aging coal stations may continue operating well beyond their planned retirement dates.
South Africa remains heavily dependent on coal, which currently supplies about 80 percent of the country’s electricity. The continued reliance on coal contrasts with broader global trends, particularly in other developing economies where coal use has recently started declining.
Eskom’s head of generation, Bheki Nxumalo, acknowledged that the utility is actively evaluating the possibility of extending the life of several coal-fired units.
“We are looking at it,” Nxumalo said during a conference in Cape Town.
According to Nxumalo, one of the biggest obstacles facing South Africa’s transition away from coal is the long waiting period for gas turbine equipment from major international suppliers including Siemens AG and General Electric Co.
A shortage of equipment and production backlogs mean South Africa is already unlikely to meet the original timeline for replacing coal plants with gas infrastructure.
“Unless the order is in, the backlog is just too high,” Nxumalo said.
Eskom’s current plans still involve shutting down around 7.4 gigawatts of coal capacity by 2030. However, the utility acknowledged that those plans depend heavily on replacement projects being completed on time.
“It must be noted that this plan hinges on all projects as envisaged in the IRP25 materializing on time,” Eskom said in a written response.
The delays have complicated South Africa’s long-term energy strategy, which has attracted billions of dollars in international funding intended to support a transition toward cleaner energy sources.
The country’s shift away from coal has been viewed as one of the most significant energy transition projects in the developing world. However, implementation has proven far more difficult than initially expected.
South Africa’s dependence on imported gas has emerged as another major concern.
Unlike coal, which remains abundant domestically, South Africa currently lacks significant local gas production capacity. That means the country would need to rely heavily on imported gas supplies to support the planned transition.
The situation has become even more complicated following geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly disruptions linked to the conflict involving Iran and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
The regional conflict has contributed to rising global gas prices and increased concerns over energy supply security. Those developments have made coal appear more economically and strategically attractive to some South African policymakers.
“With the wars we can’t shut down our coal power stations that we hoped to replace with gas,” said Silas Zimu, special adviser to Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa.
“As you see gas is more expensive — we must take a responsible decision that we’re going to have to protect our current coal power stations,” he added during a conference earlier this month.
The government’s renewed openness toward prolonged coal use reflects growing fears that South Africa could face another severe electricity crisis if replacement capacity fails to arrive in time.
The country only recently emerged from years of rolling blackouts that damaged economic growth, disrupted businesses, and weakened public confidence in Eskom and the government.
Eskom had already approved plans in 2024 to extend the operation of some coal stations to stabilize electricity supply and reduce the risk of renewed power shortages.
Coal supporters within the government also argue that the industry remains critical for employment and local economies, particularly in the Mpumalanga province where many mines and power stations are concentrated.
Mineral Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe recently defended continued investment in coal-related projects, including carbon-capture initiatives intended to reduce emissions while preserving coal production.
“Our critical-minerals strategy recognizes coal as a strategic resource because it continues to create employment for thousands of people and sustains the livelihoods of millions of South Africans,” Mantashe said during the opening of an expansion project at Exxaro Resources Ltd.’s Matla coal mine.
The Matla mine supplies coal to a nearby Eskom power station. Eskom recently signed a new coal supply agreement extending until 2043, nearly a decade beyond the plant’s latest planned retirement date.
The power station itself began operating in 1979.
Eskom declined to officially confirm the revised retirement schedule for the plant, although it acknowledged the supplied coal could potentially be redirected to other facilities if necessary.
At the same time, South Africa continues pursuing gas projects intended to diversify the national energy mix.
The government’s Integrated Resource Plan still envisions 6,000 megawatts of gas generation capacity entering operation over the next several years. The plan includes a major Eskom gas project expected to become operational in 2029, alongside independent producer projects scheduled for the following year.
However, progress remains slow.
Eskom’s proposed Richards Bay gas project suffered a major setback after environmental groups successfully challenged its authorization process in court last year. The utility has now been ordered to repeat parts of the environmental review.
Despite the legal setback, Eskom insists the project will continue.
“The intention is to still continue with gas-to-power project,” the utility said.
Separately, a government procurement initiative aimed at securing 3,000 megawatts of gas-generated electricity from independent producers has also experienced repeated delays.
Under the latest timeline released by the Independent Power Producer office, preferred bidders are expected to be announced in August, with commercial agreements potentially finalized a year later. Full commercial operation would begin approximately three years after that.
Those timelines mean many gas projects are unlikely to arrive quickly enough to replace the coal stations originally scheduled for closure before 2030.
Environmental and public health advocates warn that prolonging coal use carries serious consequences.
A study published last year by the South African Medical Research Council found that communities living near coal-fired power plants experience significantly higher mortality rates linked to air pollution.
The pollution includes particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide, all of which contribute to respiratory illnesses, cardiovascular disease, and premature deaths.
Despite those concerns, South African officials increasingly appear focused on balancing environmental goals with economic stability and electricity reliability.
The country’s energy transition now faces a difficult reality: while cleaner alternatives remain the long-term objective, coal is likely to remain central to South Africa’s electricity system for far longer than originally planned.
