Most of the world’s largest economies are not making sufficient progress toward their 2030 climate commitments, according to a new analysis by the World Resources Institute (WRI), which found that only five of the 14 G20 members assessed are currently on track to meet their emissions reduction targets.
The report paints a troubling picture for global climate action, with several major economies, including the United Kingdom, the European Union and the United States, falling behind the pace needed to achieve the goals they pledged under the Paris Agreement.
According to the analysis, the countries reviewed account for a substantial share of global greenhouse gas emissions. Collectively, all G20 members are responsible for more than three-quarters of annual global emissions, while the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Argentina together contribute roughly 30% of worldwide pollution.
The United States, which accounts for an estimated 11.16% of global greenhouse gas emissions, further complicated its climate trajectory after the Trump administration withdrew the country’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) as part of its decision to exit the Paris Agreement.
Among the 14 G20 economies that submitted emissions projections for 2030, only Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Türkiye are currently on pace to meet their existing commitments, according to WRI.
Those targets were established through each country’s nationally determined contributions submitted between 2020 and 2021 under the Paris climate framework. Fourteen G20 members provided 2030 emissions projections that allowed researchers to assess their progress.
Countries are required to submit Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) documenting implementation of their climate commitments. The first reports were due in 2024, while updated submissions are expected by the end of 2026.
Using those reports, WRI evaluated whether countries are reducing emissions quickly enough to fulfill their 2030 promises.
The findings show that projected 2030 emissions in seven G20 members exceed the levels promised in their national climate plans. The United Kingdom, South Korea and Canada each face gaps of at least 25% between projected emissions and their stated targets.
Argentina would need to reduce emissions by about 1% annually to reach its 2030 goal, while Brazil requires average annual reductions of approximately 6.5%. The United Kingdom and Canada would also need to accelerate their emissions cuts significantly, achieving annual reductions of roughly 5.4% and 5.5%, respectively.
Meanwhile, WRI concluded that the European Union, Mexico and Japan must roughly double their current pace of emissions reductions if they hope to achieve their 2030 commitments.
Even if every country were to fully meet its existing NDC targets, WRI warned that current commitments alone would still fall short of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the benchmark established by climate scientists to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.
The findings echo concerns raised by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which estimated last November that global temperatures could rise by as much as 6 degrees Celsius by 2100 if countries fail to strengthen climate action and continue along current policy pathways.
In response, the OECD has urged governments to adopt far more ambitious national climate plans for 2035, embed net-zero targets into domestic law and renew commitments to international cooperation.
WRI likewise stressed that governments must intensify efforts to reduce emissions, fulfill existing pledges and adopt more ambitious climate policies. The organization identified the December 2026 deadline for the next round of Biennial Transparency Reports as a critical opportunity for countries to demonstrate measurable progress toward meeting their climate commitments.
