Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing is set to receive a significant diplomatic boost during a state visit to China this week, as he seeks to strengthen his hold on power following a widely criticized election and more than four years of civil war.
The five-day trip, the highest level of engagement since he seized power in a 2021 coup, will include meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping. It follows a recent visit to India, where he held talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a more limited diplomatic format.
“An official state visit hosted by Xi Jinping is a visible signal that China is prepared to deal with Myanmar’s new administration as a full partner,” said Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar adviser at Crisis Group. “India gave him a warm embrace on his recent visit, but not the full honours of an official state visit.”
While the visit offers symbolic gains for Min Aung Hlaing, analysts say Beijing is primarily focused on securing strategic and economic interests in Myanmar, including border stability and access to natural resources such as rare earth minerals.
China remains Myanmar’s largest trading partner and investor, with influence anchored through Belt and Road Initiative projects including a cross-country oil and gas pipeline and a deep-sea port. Beijing has also acted as a key diplomatic and security partner for Myanmar’s military, at times facilitating ceasefire discussions along its border regions.
“China’s interests are not on federalism, but rare earths, infrastructure, mining, and securing the economic corridor to the Indian Ocean,” said David Mathieson, an independent analyst based in Thailand. “China also perceives the West in retreat from Myanmar and Beijing will assert a new suzerainty over the country.”
Myanmar has been engulfed in conflict since Min Aung Hlaing overthrew the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, triggering nationwide protests that evolved into an armed resistance involving pro-democracy militias and ethnic armed groups. The fighting has killed more than 93,000 people and displaced over 3.7 million, according to conflict monitors.
Despite the ongoing war, the military government staged elections in December and January that excluded major opposition groups, resulting in a sweeping victory for a military-aligned party and paving the way for Min Aung Hlaing to assume the presidency.
His delegation to China includes chief ministers from Kachin and Shan states, both bordering China, as well as the country’s industry minister, according to state media. The two regions are strategically important, with Kachin home to major rare earth mining sites and Shan serving as a key corridor for cross-border trade.
Analysts say the delegation suggests discussions are likely to focus on border commerce and long-stalled infrastructure projects, including the Myitsone Dam, a $3.6 billion Chinese-backed hydropower project in Kachin State suspended in 2011.
“In 2025, the military’s second-in-command, General Soe Win, personally began bringing up the subject of restarting Myitsone, so I think they will discuss restarting it during Min Aung Hlaing’s current trip to China,” said Aung Kyaw Soe, an independent analyst based in Thailand.
The visit is also being overshadowed by the recent arrest in China of Min Zin, a prominent Myanmar scholar based in the United States, on suspicion of espionage.
“Min Aung Hlaing’s visit will put a greater focus on Min Zin’s arrest, because he is one of the most prominent Myanmar scholars working to improve understanding between the two countries,” Horsey said.
