MIAMI — Penalty shootouts have long been regarded as football’s cruelest lottery, but teams competing at the World Cup increasingly see them as a specialist discipline where meticulous preparation, psychology and analytics can make the difference between elimination and survival.
The importance of that approach has already been evident during the knockout stage. Germany and the Netherlands were both eliminated in round-of-32 shootout defeats to Paraguay and Morocco, while Belgium avoided the ordeal altogether when Youri Tielemans converted a decisive penalty deep into extra time to complete a dramatic comeback victory over Senegal.
For Geir Jordet, a professor at the Norwegian School of Sport Sciences and author of Pressure, describing penalty shootouts as a lottery no longer reflects modern football.
“In a successful World Cup campaign, facing a penalty shootout is almost inevitable,” Jordet told Reuters. “To not spend time on that is very strange.”
He argued that neglecting penalty preparation risks placing enormous psychological burdens on players whose careers may ultimately be defined by a single missed kick.
“Ultimately there will be a young player whose legacy will be defined by the failure in a penalty shootout, which is a massive negative emotional trauma that we’re inflicting on this player as a coaching staff, as an FA, and even as a football industry,” Jordet said.
Jordet analyzed all 718 penalties taken in men’s World Cup, European Championship and Champions League shootouts from 1970 through 2023. His research found that more than half of players who missed displayed similar signs of distress afterward, including collapsing to the ground, hiding their faces, lowering their heads or avoiding teammates.
England’s repeated failures from the penalty spot during the 1990s and early 2000s eventually prompted a comprehensive overhaul of its preparation methods, a model Jordet believes has influenced the wider game.
“The England story is fascinating,” he said. “They created these big penalty projects. They’re very pioneering and innovative, comprehensive in their approach.”
England continue that philosophy under coach Thomas Tuchel, who views penalties as a technical skill refined through repetition.
“The FA has a programme in place. We follow this programme in detail, and it’s just an important and very specific part of football that comes into play in knockout matches,” Tuchel said.
Spain coach Luis de la Fuente echoed that view, rejecting the notion that every player is equally suited to taking penalties.
“Kicking a penalty is not something that happens at random,” De la Fuente said. “Just as we have specialists in free kicks, in corner kicks, we have specialists in penalties. Not everybody can shoot a penalty.”
He added that psychological readiness is just as important as technical ability.
“We have to focus on the psychological aspect as well. For some of them, it’s much harder, and others are just eager to shoot penalties,” he said.
Jordet’s work also focuses on the subtle body language that often reveals a player’s mental state before striking the ball. He believes players who rush immediately after the referee’s whistle may be reacting to anxiety rather than concentrating on execution.
“The pivotal moment is when the referee blows his whistle,” Jordet said. “Some players react very quickly, and that could indicate that their focus is basically on their emotions and not on the task at hand.”
He noted that exceptional penalty takers such as Kylian Mbappe remain effective despite quick run-ups because their tempo reflects their natural style rather than nervousness.
Belgium midfielder Tielemans said confidence came from preparation rather than instinct after converting against Senegal.
“We’ve been practising the last few days,” he said. “In that moment you just try to be confident and trust your abilities.”
Goalkeepers, meanwhile, have undergone their own tactical revolution. Rather than relying solely on instinct, many now use extensive statistical analysis and carefully rehearsed deception techniques.
“Goalkeepers are more prepared,” Jordet said. “So far in this World Cup, we’re seeing how goalkeepers have kind of gained a little bit of an edge by just being smarter than the penalty takers and using analytics and data better than what we have seen in the past.”
Morocco goalkeeper Yassine Bounou, better known as Bono, has become one of the tournament’s standout examples.
“He has developed this into an art,” Jordet said. “He has shown that against some of the top penalty takers in the world.”
According to Jordet, Bono’s trademark double-feint movement on the goal line is designed to convince penalty takers he is diving one way before committing in the opposite direction. The tactic proved decisive during Morocco’s shootout victory over the Netherlands, when Bono saved one penalty while two Dutch players missed the target.
Brazil coach Carlo Ancelotti has embraced similarly detailed preparation, dividing his squad into two groups for full penalty shootout rehearsals that replicate match conditions. Players wait on the halfway line, walk individually to the spot and complete the entire routine while Ancelotti studies their body language and decision-making.
Even with all the science, analysis and practice, however, penalty shootouts remain one of football’s harshest examinations. Somewhere before this World Cup concludes, another player’s career may still be remembered for a single kick from 12 yards.
